Reflections on Crypto and More

NFTs, Reflections

Talk to me Goose

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When he needs guidance, Maverick always channels his late friend and co-pilot Goose.

If you haven’t seen Top Gun go watch it and also watch Top Gun:Maverick. In my personal opinion sometimes we need some 80’s cheesy ness, specially now with this crazy market and world that we are living in.   We also need a Goose whether its a friend, foe, mentor, family member, head of research at a large financial institution etc.  Go out there and find your Goose and also read this post.

So right now TALK TO ME GOOSE what’s the move? The market is taking a beating, but are we bullish again?  Is the market bottoming?

Here are some important headlines that you need to read.

This environment is confusing and to be honest it’s hard to say.   But to this shroom we are not really out of the gate yet in the short to medium term.  Lets dig into a few headlines:

a16z-Opens a $4.5 billion crypto fund

This is bullish for the long term. For those that do not know a16z is a Venture Capital firm with 33 billion Assets Under Management.  These firms take a long term approach (several years) to invest and assist in building startups that they can later sell or cash out on their IPO etc. 4.5 billion in crypto is tremendously bullish because it adds legitimacy to the space, however the impact will be felt in the longer term.  If this fund goes up 5 times it will be worth 22.5 billion and that is a conservative estimate considering how fast the space is growing.

The ETH Merge is taking place on June 8th  ???

We all long awaited the merge of ETH and this is bullish not only because the ETH ecosystem is growing exponentially, but because there will be more stability and a large yield generation opportunity.

In addition to this ETH will become carbon neutral and token issuance will decrease a 90%. This piece from Bankless explains it well. With a deflationary ETH some experts state this will have the effect of a halving, and for those Bitcoiners you know what that means =>MOON.

ETHs TVL as of today is greater than USD 70 bn and it’s still the dominant chain for DeFi protocols and L2s such as Optimism, Harmony, ZkSync + the Proof of Stake change will supercharge ETH into a higher value.

Terra 2.0 Is Live

After the Luna and UST debacle which cause rippled effects in global markets (for those who want more I recommend the Hayes piece) the release of Terra 2.0 to salvage what was launched is not going to help in my humble opinion as trust has been lost. This move to save something that cannot be rescued just adds more noise to the market. To me once trust is broken there is no more comebacks, but sometimes evil does win in the short run.

The Fed is about to go wildin with QT

In the US and in other parts with high inflation…a lot of people are hurting because their rent increased, food cost is up, and some aped in the original Luna with their live savings and lost all their money. Oil is hitting more highs and gas has become very expensive.

Basically to stop inflation the government has to kill demand and probably this is what will trigger a recession.  On the other hand while its painful its not Turkey painful with 73% inflation for May.  The FED has 9 Trillion of Bonds, MBS and other securities it is going to offload. This is supposed to shrink money supply and kill inflation at a very high cost.

This is bearish in the short to medium term as the stock market can continue to tank as interest rates increased. The debate whether its priced in is still young.

This added to the war has sent prices of commodities soaring.

 

So basically the media, myself and the world is painting DOOM and GLOOM. So GOOSE talk to me?

QUACK QUACK QUACK…

My advice frens is to keep going, keep dollar cost averaging, risk what you can and also start saving up for emergencies and for investing.  They say fortunes are built in bear markets, but also they are taken away.

Be prudent when you can and stoopidly apish too, but never forget to risk manage. Trust me emotions have taken the best of me and I have lost a lot.

The market is for everyone, but everyone is not for the market.

WAGMI

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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